Wednesday, 5 January 2011

The Big 5 Mil

No, not 5 million dollars (I wish), but 5 million people. As in when will New Zealand hit that? I thought, quick calculation, by 2020 (we hit 4 mil in 2003), but... let's take a look at properly done calculations, using information from Statistics New Zealand.

First, we could use the population clock, which puts us currently at just under 4.4, and growing at, basically, 1 person per 10 minutes. So with 605,432 to at the moment, that works out at... 11.5 years, so 2022-2023. [Note that these estimates are updated so this can change.]

However, we also have population projections
for upcoming years. Although this series is produced by the 5 year mark, we can get a yearly breakdown from Table Builder. Now, this is broken down in to various series 1-9 to allow for variability in assumptions of birth rate, death rate and migration rate. (There are more detailed sub series, but this is fine.) [Note that these estimates were rebased to 2009, and will probably change again come the next Census in a few months.]

According to Series 5, the middle of the road assumptions typically used, we hit 5 mil in 2027. Series 9, the highest growth, hits 5 mil in 2022 (which matches the clock, interesting). Series 1, the slowest, doesn't even hit 5 mil.

Ignoring Series 1 (as we can't use it), the years of 5 mil are 2030, 2028, 2031, 2027, 2024, 2026, 2025 and 2022, giving a range from 2022 to 2031, and an average year of 2026/27. (The latest release gives "mid-2020s" for 5 mil, about right.)

So, yeah, while my estimate was off, we are looking at 5 mil in around 15 years. Be interesting to see where we house them all...


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